Liverpool are very close to winning their second Premier League title. After some strong performances, including big wins over Manchester City and Newcastle United, they now have a 13-point lead at the top of the table.
Arsenal, their closest challengers, are struggling to keep up. According to Opta, Liverpool have a 98.8% chance of becoming champions. But when can Liverpool win the Premier League, exactly? Let’s look at the possible dates.
Earliest Possible Title Win
Liverpool could, in theory, secure the Premier League title as early as the first week of April. For that to happen, Arsenal would need to lose their next four matches against Manchester United (A), Chelsea (H), Fulham (H), and Everton (A), a tough ask, even with their current struggles.
At the same time, Liverpool must win their next three games, facing Southampton (H), Everton (H), and Fulham (A). If both scenarios unfold, the Reds could be crowned champions with a victory over Fulham on 5-6 April.
What If Arsenal Keeps Winning?
Liverpool have played one more game than Arsenal, but the Gunners will catch up on 16 March when they face Chelsea at home. This is the same day Liverpool plays Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup final.
If Arsenal beats Chelsea and keeps winning their other games, Liverpool may have to wait until 3-4 May to win the title. This could happen when they play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. If this happens, Arsenal might have to give Liverpool a guard of honour in their next league game at Anfield.
However, if Liverpool keep their 13-point lead and Arsenal fail to close the gap, the Reds could win the title earlier, on 26-27 April, when they play Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield.
Can Liverpool Win the Title Against Arsenal?
The Reds could still have the chance to win the Premier League title at home against Arsenal on the weekend of 10-11 May, but it would require a specific set of circumstances.
For this scenario to play out, Arsenal must close the gap on Liverpool to between four and seven points before that match. With only three games left for both teams at that stage, it would set up a dramatic showdown at Anfield, where the Reds could seal the title in front of their home fans.
Can Liverpool Set New Records?
Liverpool would need everything to go perfectly to match their 2019/20 record of winning the league with seven games left. A more realistic goal is to win the title with five games left, something Manchester United (2000/01) and Manchester City (2017/18) have done before.
The earliest a Premier League title has been won was on 14 April 2001, when Manchester United became champions. For Liverpool to break this record, they need to increase their lead over Arsenal in the coming weeks.
Liverpool could also set another record by winning the league with the biggest margin in Premier League history. To do this, they must increase their lead over Arsenal by seven points to beat Manchester City’s 19-point margin over Manchester United in 2017/18.
Liverpool’s maximum possible points this season is 97, which is close to Manchester City’s record of 100 points in a single season.
