After a dominant campaign last season that saw Liverpool clinch their 20th English top-flight title with four games to spare, expectations are sky-high for Arne Slot and his resurgent Reds heading into the 2025-26 season.
According to Opta’s latest supercomputer projections, Liverpool have been given a 28.5% chance of retaining their Premier League crown, a dramatic jump from the 5.1% they were handed this time last year.
The projections were part of Opta Analyst’s Premier League season preview, which simulated the season 10,000 times to determine likely outcomes.
While the numbers suggest a wide-open race, Liverpool emerge as favourites, even amid significant changes on and off the pitch.
Arne Slot’s first season at Anfield defied the odds, with many tipping Liverpool to be on the outside of the title picture. Instead, they stormed to glory in style. Now, as Slot enters his second season, his project is beginning to take full shape, albeit with some emotional and structural reshuffling.
The team will head into the new campaign without Luis Díaz, who has joined Bayern Munich, and Trent Alexander-Arnold, whose exit leaves a notable void in leadership and creativity. More painfully, the tragic passing of Diogo Jota has cast a long shadow over the club, emotionally uniting the dressing room but also serving as a somber reminder of life beyond football.
Yet, Liverpool have also been active and ambitious in the market. Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiké, Milos Kerkez, and Jeremie Frimpong all arrive with clear intent to refresh and strengthen an already formidable squad. The supercomputer clearly believes the pieces are in place for another serious run at the title.
Liverpool’s Challengers for the Crown
Arsenal, meanwhile, continue to flirt with glory without quite grasping it and three consecutive second-place finishes under Mikel Arteta have raised expectations and frustrations in equal measure.
But this summer, the Gunners made a statement signing in Viktor Gyökeres, a prolific striker who could be the missing link in their attack and the supercomputer seems optimistic about Arsenal’s chances. It has assigned them a 24.3% likelihood of winning the league, nearly double last season’s odds.
Unfortunately, however, it also predicts that their most likely finish is once again second place so for Arteta and his players, the message is clear: it’s now or never.
Manchester City were expected to make history last season by winning a fifth consecutive title, but instead, they endured a rare stumble, hampered by a long-term knee injury to Rodri, whose absence exposed structural weaknesses in midfield and now with Rodri fit and Pep Guardiola still at the helm, City remain a dangerous force, yet the supercomputer projects only an 18.8% chance of City reclaiming the crown, far less than the 82.2% it gave them before last season.
Chelsea enter the season buoyed by their FIFA Club World Cup victory, with manager Enzo Maresca building a youthful but vibrant squad and Cole Palmer, Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez, and others will be asked to lead the charge as the Blues look to win their first league title since 2017, but the supercomputer gives them a realistic 8.8% shot, with fourth place once again predicted as their most likely outcome.
In contrast, Manchester United (0.6%) and Tottenham Hotspur (0.3%) are almost completely ruled out of contention and after finishing in the bottom half last season, both clubs are seen as long-term projects rather than immediate title challengers while Aston Villa and Newcastle United each received 5.1% odds to pull off a surprise win, suggesting they’re viewed as dark horses but not quite among the elite.
